Prohibition just doesn’t work – so why is tobacco control pushing it?

Smoking is disappearing in a lot of countries – because young people are not taking it up! But this seems to be a point that is either lost on tobacco control or they are just simply ignoring it in what seems like a bid to push for prohibition!

Governments, even in those countries where smoking has almost disappeared, are coming under increasing pressure to introduce bans and prohibitions.  And we see ever more publications arguing for it. A paper, published in Lancet Public Health this month, for example, argues that Europe, North America, New Zealand and Australia are where most lung-cancer deaths could be prevented by strengthening tobacco-control measures, and by that they mean prohibition!

What is often proposed is that certain products are not sold to people born after a certain year. There are already laws against selling to minors. So, prohibition would only apply to adults as those born after the specified date grow older. Banning something doesn’t make it disappear, it just changes the way it is supplied and who supplies them – usually the black market.

Unprecedented declines in smoking already a thing!

This Lancet paper seems to miss the point that there have already been massive declines in cigarette smoking in Europe, New Zealand and the US – unprecedented declines that were achieved without the need to ban anything.

Several Countries in Europe are already close to being smoke free

• In Sweden, the rate of smoking has fallen from 15% in 2008 to 5.6% in 2023 with Sweden on track to be the first smoke-free country in the world.
• In the UK, the most recent data shows that 3% of 15-year-olds are regular smokers, down from 30% in 1996. Adult smoking is also at an all-time low

In New Zealand between 2020 and 2023, adult smoking declined by 43% from 11.9% to 6.8%.

By contrast, Australia’s rules on e-cigarettes are so restrictive as to be a de facto ban.  The result is a burgeoning black market, murders, fire bombings and a stalling in the rate of smoking decline. Historically, Australia had lower rates of smoking than New Zealand.

More Carrot, Less Stick!

What the US, UK, New Zealand and Sweden all have in common is that in these countries, smokers have access to appealing, accessible, lower-risk alternatives to cigarettes and snus.

The concept of ‘risk proportionality’ underpins the regulatory philosophy in these countries – this means that the strictest regulations: highest tax, warnings, marketing restrictions etc, are applied to the most dangerous products (cigarettes), with more proportionate measures applied to lower-risk products like e-cigarettes.

This approach, which makes lower-risk products attractive, accessible and affordable for smokers, ensures that these products are fully regulated, reduces black market activity, generates tax revenue and all without the need for onerous bans or prohibitions.